| Category | Frontrunners |
| Best Picture | One Battle After Another vs. Sinners |
| Best Director | Paul Thomas Anderson vs. Ryan Coogler |
| Best Actor | Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) or Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) |
| Best Actress | Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) — The heavy favorite of the night. |
🎭 Ceremony Highlights So Far
The “Sinners” Record: While Sinners started the night with a historic 16 nominations, it has seen a split in the technical categories, losing some early awards to F1 and Frankenstein.
Political Undertones: Host Conan O’Brien has used his monologue to address the “thin line” between Hollywood glamour and the current geopolitical tensions, notably the ongoing war in Iran and the travel controversy surrounding nominee The Voice of Hind Rajab.
Emotional Tribute: A special segment honored the late Robert Duvall, who passed away just weeks ago at age 95.
🏆 Confirmed Winners
Best Supporting Actor: Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) – His third Oscar win.
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan (Weapons) – A major upset over the favorite, Wunmi Mosaku.
Best Original Screenplay: Ryan Coogler (Sinners) – The first win of the night for the record-breaking 16-nomination film.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) – His first career Oscar win after 14 nominations.
Best Sound: F1 – Edging out Sinners in a technical upset.
Best Animated Feature: Zootopia 2 (Disney).

Erin Brockovich
⏳ Coming Up Next (The “Big Four”)
The ceremony is moving into the final stretch. Here is the current “win probability” based on the night’s momentum:
Best Picture
The race has narrowed to a two-horse race between Ryan Coogler’s Sinners (the historic record-holder) and Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. One Battle After Another has more momentum following the Screenplay and Supporting Actor wins.
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) remains the “lock” of the night. If she wins, she will become the first Irish woman to win Best Actress.
Best Actor
This is the most contested category of the night. Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) has significant momentum following his recent Actor Awards win, but Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was the long-time frontrunner.
Best Director
A showdown between Ryan Coogler and Paul Thomas Anderson. After winning Adapted Screenplay earlier tonight, many insiders believe this is finally Anderson’s year to take the directing prize.

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🎭 Trending Moment
The “empty seat” for Motaz Malhees (star of The Voice of Hind Rajab) has become the visual symbol of the night. Several presenters have made “silent gestures” or wore pins in solidarity with the actor, who was unable to attend due to current travel restrictions.